A prediction or forecast Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of the expected value for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time is a statement about the way things will happen in the future The future is the time period which contain all events that have yet to occur. It is the opposite of the past, and is the time after the present. In the Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected time line that is anticipated to occur. In special relativity the future is considered to be, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there is much overlap between prediction and forecast, a prediction may be a statement that some outcome is expected, while a forecast may cover a range of possible outcomes.

Although guaranteed information about the information is in many cases impossible, prediction is necessary to allow plans Planning in organizations and public policy is both the organizational process of creating and maintaining a plan; and the psychological process of thinking about the activities required to create a desired goal on some scale. As such, it is a fundamental property of intelligent behavior. This thought process is essential to the creation and to be made about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and hard."^[1]

The etymology Etymology is the study of the history of words, where they are from, and how their form and meaning have changed over time of prediction is Latin Latin or sometimes Roman is an Italic language originally spoken in Latium and Ancient Rome. Although often considered a dead language, in view of the fact that it has no native, fluent speakers, Latin continues to be taught in schools and has been, and currently is, used in the process of new word production in modern languages from many (præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say").

Informal prediction from hypothesis

Outside the rigorous context of science, prediction is often confused with informed guess or opinion A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for an observable phenomenon. The term derives from the Greek, ὑποτιθέναι – hypotithenai meaning "to put under" or "to suppose." For a hypothesis to be put forward as a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base.

A prediction of this kind might be (inductively) Inductive reasoning, also known as induction or inductive logic, is a type of reasoning that involves moving from a set of specific facts to a general conclusion. It uses premises from objects that have been examined to establish a conclusion about an object that has not been examined. It can also be seen as a form of theory-building, in which valid The term validity in logic is largely synonymous with logical truth, however the term is used in different contexts. Validity is a property of formulae, statements and arguments. A logically valid argument is one where the conclusion follows from the premises. An invalid argument is where the conclusion does not follow from the premises. A if the predictor is a knowledgeable person Authority, from the Latin word auctoritas, means invention, advice, opinion, influence, or command. Essentially authority is imposed by superiors upon inferiors either by force of arms or by force of argument (sapiential authority). Usually authority has components of both compulsion and persuasion. For this reason, as used in Roman law, authority in the field and is employing sound reasoning In mathematical logic, a logical system has the soundness property if and only if its inference rules prove only formulas that are valid with respect to its semantics. In most cases, this comes down to its rules having the property of preserving truth, but this is not the case in general. The word derives from the Germanic 'Sund' as in Gesundheit, and accurate In the fields of engineering, industry and statistics, the accuracy of a measurement system is the degree of closeness of measurements of a quantity to its actual value. The precision of a measurement system, also called reproducibility or repeatability, is the degree to which repeated measurements under unchanged conditions show the same results data In science, measurement is the process of estimating or determining the magnitude of a quantity, such as length or mass, relative to a unit of measurement, such as a metre or a kilogram. The term measurement can also be used to refer to a specific result obtained from the measurement process. Large corporations invest heavily in this kind of activity to help focus attention on possible events, risks and business opportunities, using futurists Futurists or futurologists are scientists and social scientists whose speciality is to attempt systematically to predict the future, whether that of human society in particular or of life on earth in general. Such work brings together all available past and current data, as a basis to develop reasonable expectations about the future.

Opinion polls

In politics Politics is a process by which groups of people make collective decisions. The term is generally applied to behavior within civil governments, but politics has been observed in other group interactions, including corporate, academic, and religious institutions. It consists of "social relations involving authority or power" and refers to it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy operates since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local via political forecasting Polls are an integral part of political forecasting. However, incorporating poll results into political forecasting models can cause problems in predicting the outcome of elections. There are a few ways in which inaccurate election forecasts can be avoided techniques (or assess the popularity of politicians A politician or political leader is an individual who is involved in influencing public decision making. This includes people who hold decision-making positions in government, and people who seek those positions, whether by means of election, coup d'état, appointment, electoral fraud, conquest, right of inheritance (see also: divine right) or) through the use of opinion polls An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. Prediction games A prediction game is a game which allow users to guess at the outcome of future events. Prediction games are generally operated online and are free for users to play. Points are awarded to players who most accurately predict the outcome of an event, and those points are converted into cash prizes have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events.

Statistics

In statistics Statistics is the formal science of making effective use of numerical data relating to groups of individuals or experiments. It deals with all aspects of this, including not only the collection, analysis and interpretation of such data, but also the planning of the collection of data, in terms of the design of surveys and experiments, prediction is a part of statistical inference Statistical inference or statistical induction comprises the use of statistics and random sampling to make inferences concerning some unknown aspect of a population. It is distinguished from descriptive statistics, and the field is known as predictive inference Predictive inference is an interpretation of probability that emphasizes the prediction of future observations based on past observations.

Supernatural (prophecy)

Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using paranormal Paranormal is a general term that designates experiences that lie outside "the range of normal experience or scientific explanation" or that indicates phenomena that are understood to be outside of science's current ability to explain or measure. Paranormal phenomena are distinct from certain hypothetical entities, such as dark matter or supernatural The term supernatural or supranatural pertains to being above or beyond what one holds to be natural. In the case of one who has strong scientific and atheist beliefs, the supernatural is anything unexplainable by natural law or phenomena. While one who holds mystical or heavenly beliefs may have no conception of supernatural phenomena, he or she means such as prophecy A prophecy is the message that has been communicated to a prophet which the prophet then communicates to others. Such messages typically involve divine inspiration, interpretation, or revelation of events to come or by observing omens An omen is a phenomenon that is believed to foretell the future, often signifying the advent of change. Though the word "omen" is usually devoid of reference to the change's nature, hence being possibly either "good" or "bad", the term is more often used in a foreboding sense, as with the word "ominous". [. Methods including water divining Dowsing is a type of divination employed in attempts to locate ground water, buried metals or ores, gemstones, oil, gravesites, and many other objects and materials, as well as so-called currents of earth radiation, without the use of scientific apparatus. Dowsing is also known as divining , doodlebugging (in the US), or (when searching, astrology Astrology is a group of systems, traditions, and beliefs which hold that the relative positions of celestial bodies and related details can provide information about personality, human affairs and other "earthly" matters. A practitioner of astrology is called an astrologer. Astrologers believe that the movements and positions of, numerology Numerology is any of many systems, traditions or beliefs in a mystical or esoteric relationship between numbers and physical objects or living things, fortune telling Fortune-telling is the practice of predicting the life, usually of a group, through mystical or natural means, and often for commercial gain. It is often conflated with the religious practice known as divination, interpretation of dreams, and many other forms of divination Divination is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of a standardized process or ritual. Diviners ascertain their interpretations of how a querent should proceed by reading signs, events, or omens, or through alleged contact with a supernatural agency. Divination can be seen as a systematic method with which to organize, have been used for millennia to attempt to predict the future. These means of prediction have not been substantiated by controlled experiments, and are disputed by most, including scientists A scientist in a broad sense is one engaging in a systematic activity to acquire knowledge. In a more restricted sense, a scientist is an individual who uses the scientific method. The person may be an expert in one or more areas of science. This article focuses on the more restricted use of the word. Scientists perform research toward a more and skeptics Contemporary skepticism is loosely used to denote any questioning attitude, or some degree of doubt regarding claims that are elsewhere taken for granted.

Prediction in science

In science a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what will happen under specific conditions; for example, if an apple falls from a tree it will be attracted towards the center of the earth by gravity Gravitation, or gravity, is one of the four fundamental interactions of nature , in which objects with mass attract one another. In everyday life, gravitation is most familiar as the agent that gives weight to objects with mass and causes them to fall to the ground when dropped. Gravitation causes dispersed matter to coalesce, thus accounting for with a specified and constant acceleration In physics, and more specifically kinematics, acceleration is the change in velocity over time. Because velocity is a vector, it can change in two ways: a change in magnitude and/or a change in direction. In one dimension, i.e. a line, acceleration is the rate at which something speeds up. However, as a vector quantity, acceleration is also the. The scientific method Scientific method refers to a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning. A scientific method consists of is built on testing assertions that are logical consequences Logical consequence is a fundamental concept in logic. It is the relation that holds between a set of sentences and a sentence (proposition) when the former "entails" the latter. For example, 'Kermit is green' is said to be a logical consequence of 'All frogs are green' and 'Kermit is a frog', because it would be "self-contradictory& of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments Experiment is the step in the scientific method that arbitrates between competing models or hypotheses. Experimentation is also used to test existing theories or new hypotheses in order to support them or disprove them. An experiment or test can be carried out using the scientific method to answer a question or investigate a problem. First an or observational studies.

A scientific theory In the sciences, a scientific theory comprises a collection of concepts, including abstractions of observable phenomena expressed as quantifiable properties, together with rules (called scientific laws) that express relationships between observations of such concepts. A scientific theory is constructed to conform to available empirical data about whose assertions are contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected. Notions that make no testable predictions are usually considered not to be part of science (protoscience Protoscience refers to historical philosophical disciplines which existed prior to the development of scientific method, which allowed them to develop into science proper . A standard example is that of alchemy which later became chemistry, or that of astrology, part of which later became astronomy.[citation needed] or nescience) until testable predictions can be made.

New theories that generate many new predictions can more easily be supported or falsified Falsifiability or refutability is the logical possibility that an assertion can be shown false by an observation or by a physical experiment. That something is "falsifiable" does not mean it is false; rather, that if it is false, then this can be shown by observation or experiment. The term "testability" is related but more (see predictive power The predictive power of a scientific theory refers to its ability to generate testable predictions. Theories with strong predictive power are highly valued, because the predictions can often encourage the falsification of the theory. The concept of predictive power differs from explanatory and descriptive power in that it allows a prospective test).

In some cases the probability Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of of an outcome, rather than a specific outcome, can be predicted, for example in much of quantum physics Quantum mechanics is a set of scientific principles describing the known behavior of energy and matter that predominate at the atomic and subatomic scales. The name derives from the observation that some physical quantities—such as the energy of an electron—can be changed only by set amounts, or quanta, rather than being capable of varying by.

Mathematical equations and models A mathematical model uses mathematical language to describe a system. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modelling . Mathematical models are used not only in the natural sciences (such as physics, biology, earth science, meteorology) and engineering disciplines, but also in the social sciences (such as economics,, and computer models A computer simulation, a computer model, or a computational model is a computer program, or network of computers, that attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system. Computer simulations have become a useful part of mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics , astrophysics, chemistry and biology, human systems in, are frequently used to describe the past and future behaviour of something.

In microprocessors A microprocessor incorporates most or all of the functions of a computer's central processing unit on a single integrated circuit (IC, or microchip). The first microprocessors emerged in the early 1970s and were used for electronic calculators, using binary-coded decimal (BCD) arithmetic in 4-bit words. Other embedded uses of 4-bit and 8-bit, branch prediction In computer architecture, a branch predictor is the part of a processor that determines whether a conditional branch in the instruction flow of a program is likely to be taken or not. This is called branch prediction. Branch predictors are crucial in today's modern, superscalar processors for achieving high performance. They allow processors to permits avoidance of pipeline emptying at branch instructions. In engineering, possible failure modes are predicted and avoided by correcting the mechanism causing the failure.

Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as software reliability, natural disasters, pandemics, demography, population dynamics and meteorology.

Scientific hypothesis and prediction

Established science makes useful predictions which are considered to be extremely reliable and accurate; for example, eclipses are routinely predicted.

New theories make predictions which allow them to be falsified if the predictions are not borne out. For example in the early twentieth century the scientific consensus was that there was an absolute frame of reference, given the name luminiferous ether. The famous Michelson-Morley experiment ruled this out, falsifying the idea of an absolute frame and leaving the very counter-intuitive special theory of relativity as the only possibility.

Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on a terrestrial scale. However, the theory predicted that large masses such as stars would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse.

Finance

Mathematical models of stock market behaviour are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Consequently, stock investors may anticipate or predict a stock market boom, or fail to anticipate or predict a stock market crash.

Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games.

An actuary uses actuarial science to assess and predict future business risk, such that the risk(s) can be mitigated.

For example, in insurance an actuary would use a life table to predict (truly, estimate or compute) life expectancy.

Vision and prophecy

In literature, vision and prophecy are literary devices used to present a possible timeline of future events. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an individual sees happen. The New Testament book of Revelation (Bible) thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a sermon or other public forum.

Prediction in fiction

Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means.

• In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic or prophecy, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings, many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.
• In some of Philip K. Dick's stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically.
• In the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov, a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future.
• In Frank Herbert's sequels to Dune, his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a Golden Path out of the trap.
• In Ursula K. Le Guin's The Left Hand of Darkness, the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.

See also

• Astrology
• Famous predictions
• Futures Studies
• Optimism bias
• Predictions of Soviet collapse
• prediction games
• Prediction interval
• Prediction market
• Predictive medicine
• Reference class forecasting
• Regression analysis
• Thought experiment
• Traffic forecasting
• Trend estimation
• Weather forecasting
• Delphi method
• Forecasting
• Egain Forecasting

References

1. ^ Stevenson, Howard, ed. DO LUNCH OR BE LUNCH. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998

External links

• Predictions at the Open Directory Project

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